Sarah Khan
In November 2011, President Obama
declared, “the United States
is turning its attention to the vast potential of the Asia
Pacific region.” This announcement of a deliberate “rebalance” to Asia and
the Pacific reflected the American people’s growing recognition of the
importance of the region to US interests and the need to reassert American
engagement and leadership after the uncertainty caused by the 2008 financial
crisis and a decade of combat operations in Southwest Asia. US and its
policymakers have often announced that its “Rebalance to Asia” is based on
enhancing economic activity of US in the region, but steps taken by US
especially devoting 60 percent of forces to this region suggests that it is
more than economic. US is seeking economic and military alliances in the region
with special focus on India.
In such a scenario, Pakistan
may have to suffer repercussions if it is not timely aligned strategically with
key players of rebalance strategy.
Since 2012, however, the international
security environment has become significantly more complicated. China has
established Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) to counter growing US
influence in the region. It has also accelerated the pace of its
island-building in the East and South China Seas,
and North Korea
has continued developing its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities. The US intelligence community predicts that in 20
years, China will be the
largest nuclear nation in the world, producing over a trillion kWhs a year from
nuclear power, will have almost a billion middle class, and will have
sufficient nuclear weapons to deter even the United States. Meanwhile, Russian
revanchist activities and the emergence of the Islamic State of Iraq and the
Levant have competed with the Asia-Pacific for attention and resources.
In
the recent past, India has endorsed the US stand on the South China Sea islands
dispute with China by reaffirming “importance of freedom of navigation and
over-flight throughout the region, including in the South China Sea” and
vowed support for “a regional security architecture”. The vast scope and
depth of the present and planned Indo-US military relationship include
co-production of advanced defense articles, joint research on advanced jet
engines and aircraft carrier technologies, and strategic cooperation on
maritime security. The US-India growing cooperation in the realm of defense
with special focus on countering China has obvious and significant negative implications
for Pakistan’s security as well.
Pakistan
has become relevant in rebalance policy especially after signing China Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a key project of One Belt One Road (OBOR) strategy
of China to counter growing US economic and military influence in the region.
Moreover, it has also become a member of Shinghai Cooperation Organization and
it is also prospective founding member of Asian
Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB). As US-India strategic alliance is
enhancing with each passing day. At US behest, India has been the world’s
largest arms importer, buying over $100 billion in weapons each year,
two-thirds of which are deployed against Pakistan.
In
such a scenario, strategic cooperation with China will remain critical. Pakistan must also endeavor to enhance its
strategic collaboration with China
by signing defense deals on sharing of cutting edge military technologies. China should be expected to share its most
advanced weapons systems with Pakistan,
including nuclear submarines, stealth aircraft, and its anti-aircraft carrier
missiles. In addition to this, Pakistan
may also enhance cooperation with China
friendly states in the Asia Pacific and must participate actively in China led
economic initiatives in the region to counter growing Indian influence. In
addition to this following may be “must do” for Pakistan.
Amid
growing US-Russia tensions in a new cold war era, a bloc comprised of
China-Russia-Pakistan and Iran
can be a real counterweight to US-India emerging power bloc in the region.
Hence, Pakistan also needs
to enhance military and diplomatic cooperation with Russia. Losing Afghanistan and Iran
as friendly neighbors may be precarious for Pakistan from security point of
view. Fostering an understanding with Iran is essential. Pakistan and Iran
can cooperatively normalise their respective parts of Baluchistan and stabilise
Afghanistan — unless Iran decides to align itself with India. In Afghanistan, Pakistan
should clearly draw its ‘red lines’: no Indian military presence or use of
Afghan territory for subversion against Pakistan. While continuing to
support inter-Afghan dialogue, Islamabad should
be prepared for a collapse in Kabul
and prolonged Afghan chaos.
In
the realm of international relations, the famous cliché’ goes ‘there are no
permanent friends no permanent enemies, only national interests are permanent’.
Following realist paradigm, there must be no compromise on national interests
and Pakistan should continue
its diplomatic engagement with the US, although there may be rough
times ahead in the relationship. The US-China rivalry may aggravate in the
coming years due to clash of interests in the Asia Pacific. Eventually, once China acquires comparable military power, and
large parts of Eurasia are incorporated into China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’
economic community, Washington may come to accept coexistence and cooperation
with the new superpower. In such a scenario, Pakistan’s regional influence will
also enhance manifold as CPEC will become a reality thus resulting in improving
economic indicators and inviting foreign direct investments. Then, the US may
also come to recognize that Pakistan is a critical country whose cooperation is
vital to ensure regional stability in south and west Asia, to prevent nuclear
non-proliferation, and to and defeat global terrorism. Perhaps then, Washington will respect Pakistan’s legitimate security
concerns.
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