Perils of Unsafe Nuclear India

Sarah Khan

After signing of Indo-US nuclear deal in 2005, India is ambitiously working on its nuclear program, especially related to production of fissile material and nuclear weapons development. The deal granted to India by so called “world champion of international nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament”, United States, has allowed India to use its indigenous resources for weapons productions only. Moreover, the deal didn’t compel India to adhere to international nuclear non-proliferation regimes and convention. This gave India added confidence to invest heavily in the military domain of nuclear production without any international obligations. In addition to weapons production, India is striving to built and purchase offensive and defensive missile systems which may aggravate regional tensions in the coming decades.
One of the important aspects pertaining to Indian nuclear program is its unsafeguarded facilities. A study titled ‘Indian Unsafeguarded Nuclear Program’ which was published by the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) and was co-authored by four nuclear scholars, unveils a new and comprehensive assessment of India’s nuclear weapon capacity. The study indicates that India has sufficient material and the technical capacity to produce between 356 and 492 nuclear bombs.
The study contains evidence that India has the largest and oldest unsafeguarded nuclear programme in the developing world and among the states not party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Member states of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) should consider the large and swiftly expanding Indian nuclear bomb capacity when dealing with India’s NSG membership and ensure that Indian membership of this export control arrangement does not, in any way, help India expand and accelerate its nuclear weapons program.
India operates a number of facilities, including eight of its pressurized heavy water power reactors (PHWRs), that serve a civilian or commercial function and that are not listed in India’s safeguards agreement. These facilities are not subject to safeguards. This category includes three heavy water production plants that India expressly designated for civilian use as part of the Separation Plan but that are not subject to safeguards because they are not listed in India’s safeguards agreement and India’s additional protocol does not extend to them.
In addition to all nuclear power facilities, there are 52,000-plus radiological facilities. These include medical institutions, industrial uses, and research facilities, and safety violations happen at them, too. There have been several nuclear accidents at various facilities. A few incidents are reported owing to secrecy that shrouds Indian nuclear program. The most serious incident to date is Mayapuri in 2010, in which a cobalt-60 source was sold and taken apart in a scrapyard, killing one man and hospitalising seven others.
Arguably, India’s fast breeder reactor (FBR) and thorium fuel cycle programs fall into the category of civilian unsafeguarded, although both are capable of producing unsafeguarded weapons-usable material. In March 2006, Singh stated that FBRs would be excluded from safeguards during the development stage in order to avoid “encumbrances” on the program. India has maintained the option of using its FBRs to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons.
World’s most alarming nuclear dangers emanate from India in contemporary times. India is home to large stockpiles of fissile material and it continues to accumulate even larger stockpiles in the absence of any international mechanism to impose limit/ban on fissile material production. Having lowest standards of nuclear safety and security as per Nuclear Threat Initiative index 2016, it has some of the world’s highest population density. India is also susceptible to a terrorist attack on a nuclear facility, or the theft of nuclear materials to create a radiological bomb or crude nuclear weapon.
The incident of firing and killing of three guards at Madras nuclear facility in October 2014 depicted deplorable standards of nuclear security in India. Such incidents at nuclear facilities indicate an urgent need for improvement. Bhabha Atomic Research Center (BARC) in Mumbai is a salient case study of the intersection of terror and nuclear materials. It houses the Dhruva reactor, India’s major source of weapons-grade plutonium. An attack on a facility like BARC could constitute aggression against India’s nuclear weapons production and reconstitution capabilities. Foregoing in view, US and all those major powers running to seize nuclear deals with India must take concrete steps to compel India for enhancing its nuclear safety and security standards at all nuclear facilities. Accumulation of fissile material, missile development and nuclear weapons production by India needs to be halted in order to avoid nuclear perils emanating from India.

After SAARC, viable options emerge for Pakistan, India

By Naveed Ahmad

There are no formal closures or obituaries when a regional organisation, whether military alliance or political grouping, becomes unviable or irrelevant. Remember Warsaw Pact, The Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) and The Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO)! Similarly, the profile and activities of Non-Aligned Movement and Developing-8 are seasonal, depending on which country holds the chair. Now the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is the latest in the endless list of obsolete blocs.

Regional cooperation key to economic wellbeing

At Goa, Delhi invited a different set of countries for a parallel summit while it hosted BRICS. On his inauguration as prime minister in 2014, Narendra Modi had totally ignored the members of Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Inviting SAARC leaders, including those from Pakistan, made his swearing-in ceremony global news. However, the importance accorded to SAARC was only selective and the hype temporary, as India didn’t resume the composite dialogue process with Pakistan. Over the years, the situation has worsened to a near-war scenario. Last month, India dumped SAARC after engaging with Iran and Afghanistan through a trilateral framework. Delhi’s frustration at Pakistan and China over a shared logistical corridor acted as the final nail in its coffin.

Effectiveness of regional organisations  

BIMSTEC was formed in 1997. The ‘alliance’, as it calls itself, aims “to harness shared and accelerated growth through mutual cooperation in different areas of common interests by mitigating the onslaught of globalisation and by utilising regional resources and geographical advantages.” The sector-driven cooperative organisation began with focus on trade, technology, energy, transport, tourism and fisheries but later expanded to including agriculture, public health, poverty alleviation, counter-terrorism, environment, culture, people-to-people contact and climate change in 2008.

Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Bhutan join India in withdrawing from SAARC summit in Pakistan

Before moving to the bloc’s geo-economic and geo-strategic dynamics, it is pertinent to mention its flagship projects. The under completion Kaladan Multi-modal transit transport project seeks to link India and Myanmar by connecting Kolkata to Sittwe port. Then there is India-Myanmar-Thailand highway, which is likely to complete sometime in 2017. Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal have already started realising the dream of vehicular cargo transportation. Trial runs of trucks began in 2014 but much remains to be hammered from infrastructure and bureaucratic perspectives.

But the credit for these projects goes to bilateral and multilateral negotiations than BIMSTEC itself. Such cooperation on economic and trade fronts is attributed to the seven-member body to enhance its profile.

For India and Bangladesh, significance of BIMSTEC has been fuelled by similarity of views between Narendra Modi and Hasina Wajid. Housing the alliance’s secretariat, Dhaka has the responsibility of evolving the bureaucratic foundations for smooth trade and infrastructure development projects.

For nearly a decade, the Bay of Bengal Initiative has survived in dormancy for lack of interest from its key members. For an economic alliance, the BIMSTEC is too varied. The varying economy sizes and the member countries challenge the notion of fair treatment for all.

The differences in scale of economic development of Burma and Nepal with other members like India are mammoth and widening. For India, peace in the north-eastern states is of paramount significance. The Maoist and other secessionist movements have not been quelled to satisfaction. Thus, it is set to face similar threats in the northeast, which it has been funding, to create in Pakistan’s Balochistan region for the CPEC. Mere security cooperation with Myanmar and Bangladesh won’t be enough to address the concerns of defiant militants and their local supporters. However, the militancy in the northeast poses limited challenge to the bloc’s success than internal jealousy for maximising outcomes.

Member states and their motives 

BIMSTEC is a natural alliance but not necessarily one destined for success. China’s entry into the forum could be a game-changer. Neither has Beijing been invited nor is it interested. While the BRICS summit was being held in Goa, the Chinese premier was concluding his visit to Bangladesh. For Asia’s economic giant, bilateral relations hold the key, and wherever needed, the ASEAN multilateral forum comes to aid.

Pakistan announces postponement of 19th SAARC summit

For Pakistan, the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) holds the key. It’s nascent and less hyped compared to SAARC. China and Pakistan are linchpin for the other eight landlocked Central Asian members of the bloc. Not only does the grouping offer Central Asia access to the Arabian Sea through Gwadar and Karachi ports, but also connects her to Eurasia.

With technical assistance from the Asian Development Bank, 30 road projects will be constructed at a cost of $8 billion in next five years. The secretariat is already studying the proposal of including Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Thailand, three BIMSTEC members.

CAREC revives historic trade routes for all its member states as much as BIMSTEC does for its participants. There won’t be much sobbing over the prolonged experiment called, SAARC.

Naveed Ahmad is a Pakistani investigative journalist and academic with extensive reporting experience in the Middle East and North Africa. He is based in Doha and Istanbul. He tweets @naveed360

Geelani’s son arrested, family barred from meeting Hurriyat hawk

Hurriyat leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani’s elder son, a doctor at a government hospital here, was on Saturday arrested by the Jammu and Kashmir Police, family sources told IANS.

Naim Geelani was arrested at around 10 a.m. when he was on his way to the residence of his father, the hardline Hurriyat leader, at Hyderpora here.

“He was not allowed inside the house and police arrested him,” a family source told IANS.

The arrest comes ahead of the senior Geelani’s scheduled “address to the nation” over telephone on Saturday afternoon.

The police has barred the entry of the senior Geelani’s family members, media and most visitors to his residence. “Authorities have also installed jammers at the residence to block all phone connectivity,” the source added.

Mr. Geelani, who has been leading the unrest in Kashmir Valley since the July 8 killing of Hizbul commander Burhan Wani, has been under continuous house arrest.

Mr. Geelani along with other separatist leaders, including Mirwaiz Umar Farooq and Yasin Malik, has been issuing the “protest calendars” every week under the banner of “Joint Resistance Leadership”.

The National Investigation Agency (NIA) had in mid August summoned Naim Geelani and questioned him in connection with a Preliminary Enquiry registered by the probe agency.

The state police and security agencies have been picking up many separatist leaders and their party workers, and even those the government feels are “instigators” of the violence.

ARMY KNOWS HER RESPONSIBILITY – LET’S REALIZE OURS

Roohi Wanchoo

The people of Pakistan are feeling highly frustrated after the prolonging of current political state of affairs in the country. Political situation in Pakistan is aggravating day by day. The so called “democracy” has exacerbated the situation further. There was a time when people had political indifference towards Pakistani politics, but that lack of concern is very quickly and aggressively transforming into extreme aversion. People have lost all faith in the political system of Pakistan all the political parties have to provide the things they promised. People have come to the point that they are endeavoring to find every possible way to flee from this country never to come back the place which can only give injustice to the poor and justice to the rich.

On the other hand many of us give the example of recent thwarted coup by a portion of Turkish army by the brave Turks. In Pakistan, the immediate impact of events in Istanbul was that those inviting military intervention here got really dejected. There were some who had already concluded that Erdoğan had become history. The Turkish military’s failed coup attempt came at a time when in Pakistan some so-called political non-entities displayed banners in different parts of the country inviting Army Chief General Raheel Sharif to stage a military coup. Some media anchors and columnists here have also been beseeching the military to topple the “elected” government.

Pakistan is a country of contradictions, but nowhere are these contradictions as sharp as in the attitude and policies of the civilian and military leaderships. The military has been fighting a battle of existence against an internal threat, with a focus and determination not witnessed before. Hardly a day passes when the army and paramilitary forces do not shed their blood to regain lost territory to militant groups, or to weaken them as a whole. Already, the number of those martyred since 2003 is over 6,000, with thousands more having been injured and disabled. Yet, the military’s determination remains steadfast and unwavering. In addition, General Raheel Sharif is committed with a passion to cleansing Karachi and Sindh of drug mafias, land grabbers and militant groups of political parties.

The dirty reputations of political leaders have indirectly contributed towards raising the stature of the military. This is allowing it greater space to expand its influence. One honestly feels that amidst this muddy situation it would be very easy for the army to intervene and pack up the system just like that; however, for the first time Pakistan army is showing wisdom and has expressed its disinterest to be the part of a mucky system. Here a bitter truth needs to be addressed; those who think that army is not wrapping the system merely because they are scared of a replay of Istanbul are drastically mistaken. They should not forget that there is a mark difference between the Turk nation and Pakistan and there are many factors that dictate that difference. If in Turkey people came out on roads then in Pakistan in any such case they are expected to come out in jubilation. The reasons are well known to all. Now talking of those who are condemning army for not a takeover, let’s ask them that what reward did army get in past for any such adventure? The sad reality is that every time our politicians make a real mess of the national affairs and then cunningly try to drag the army in the affairs, make it controversial and provoke to an extent that they find no option other than going for an adventure.

However the army has realised it now and not interested anymore to get trapped. We are seeing that since many months every now and then some new issue is purposely raised and army is dragged in it. They are made to fight on external as well as internal front at the same time which is seriously harming their efficiency. Who should be blamed for that is not a very difficult question to be answered.

The point is that the army is custodian and Pakistan as good belongs to them as good as it belongs to the people of Pakistan. It’s the moral obligation of the people to stand up for their rights and to protect their motherland themselves instead of looking towards the forces. The people should not every time look for an intervention by the army. The forces know their mandate very well and are fully aware that at what time they are supposed to step-in; certainly when God forbid the sovereignty of Pakistan is in danger.

EVERY DATE OF THE BURNING VALLEY IS BLOOD SOAKED DAY

 By Sohail Parwaz

The comedy of error is that the Muslim could never keep them as a united block to show strength or display their worth. The Ummah’s interest was always a last priority for the States especially the Arab nations. Whenever I critically look at this irony then few lines from a famous German poem – through which the German intellectuals were condemned and criticised for their silence and cowardice – suddenly haunt me:

First they came for the Communists,
and I didn’t speak up,
because I wasn’t a Communist.
Then they came for the Socialists,
and I didn’t speak up,
because I wasn’t a Socialist.
Then they came for the Catholics,
and I didn’t speak up,
because I was a Protestant.
Then they came for me,
and by that time there was no one
left to speak up for me.

Few years ago, the British member Parliament George Galloway bluntly bashed the Muslim leadership of the world for their indifferent attitude and criminal silence over ruthless killings in Gaza strip by the brutal Israelis. He never spared them even in the following years. He openly said, “I address the Arab and Muslim leaders sincerely with the question. Have you no sense of shame? Judge yourselves before you are judged”. He never hesitated to condemn, the Indian atrocities in the blood bathed valley of Kashmir, in past. Although both the issues have centuries old historic background, nevertheless, in near future the both were founded with hardly six months difference; the announced siege of the Kashmir valley took place on 26 October 1947 while Israel was founded hardly 200 days later on 14 May 1948. The Muslim block is finally at a crossroad, where it is completely lost and doesn’t find a way out. The Muslim Ummah has not only lost its destination but has also lost its identity, courage, character and faith (Emaan).

Like Muslim Ummah I shall also prefer to shed few tears for the burning valley where the children of lesser god are facing the atrocities at the Indian hands. The plight of inopportune Kashmiris is a never ending saga. Like 27thOctober and 5th February there are many other dates also associated to the Kashmir freedom movement. One more historical day was 13 July 1931, a day that was not only a mile stone but a turning point in the history of Kashmir. That was the day when the Kashmiris bluntly spelled their hate and revulsion against tyranny and oppression and ever since then, every day in the Valley is 27th October or 13th July.

According to a systematic and deliberate planning the Kashmir issue is being shoved in the dusty draws. The basic issue was the freedom and Kashmiris’ right of self-determination, which was molded with the passage of time as an unfinished business of partition. The deliberate efforts were made to minimize its gravity as some ‘internal matter’ or some bilateral matter, while the history suggests that the issue existed even before India and Pakistan were founded as independent and separate nations.

As aforesaid that the dilemma of Kashmiris is a compilation of dates and no specific date by no means is the date when resistance started in Kashmir. There have been incidents of equal importance before 27th October, like the deal between the East India Company and Maharaja Gulab Singh, merely for rupees seventy-five lacs in 1846. However, these dates were certainly the turning point in freedom movement.

It was the Maharaja and his forces’ highhandedness that forced the people to turn against them. The Kashmiris, mostly the Muslims were marginalized and persecuted.

In July 2011, British parliamentarian George Galloway, the veteran campaigner on Kashmir, while addressing a seminar at the UN in Geneva had said that Kashmiris simply want plebiscite which was promised to them by the UN and former prime minister of India Jawaharlal Nehru. He pointed out to the world that due to a crime committed by the British empire the sufferings of the Kashmiris were greater than the Palestinians and some 80,000 had died in more than 20 years of freedom struggle, uncountable numbers had been imprisoned, exiled, wounded and maimed, while the rape was used as a tool of occupation. Mr. Galloway stated in unambiguous words that Kashmir was never the part of India.

The same prejudiced West that shows concern for Arab Spring and lost sleep for people’s rights in Libya and Syria is ironically seen indifferent to the miseries of the Kashmir quandary. It’s a point of great concern that due to the atrocities by Indian security forces from January 1989 till mid June 2014, around 94,038 innocent Kashmiris have been killed and that excludes custodian killing which comes around 7,023. During this period approximately 126,209 arrests have been made while 22,778 women have been widowed and 107,469 children have been orphaned. The most heinous crime is of gang-raping which the inhuman Indian soldiers, shamelessly committed, thus raped and molested 10,120 women.

Dr. Subramanian Swami of BJP has recently said in a television interview that the only solution to the Kashmir problem is a decisive war against Pakistan and latter must be nuked if India is interested in a peaceful Subcontinent. It reflects the mindset of Indian leadership and their interest for the peace but still if someone is interested in presenting the other cheek to the Indian hardliners then he is certainly living in a fools’ paradise. Ironically, despite a lapse of 69 years, Kashmiris are still struggling and sacrificing to achieve their alienable right under UN resolutions for the plebiscite in Jammu and Kashmir. What the world needs to understand is that the global village will always remain restive if the flashpoint Kashmir remains unresolved and is not handled seriously.

According to a systematic and deliberate planning the Kashmir issue is being shoved in the dusty draws. The basic issue was the freedom and Kashmiris’ right of self-determination, which was molded with the passage of time as an unfinished business of partition. The deliberate efforts were made to minimize its gravity as some ‘internal matter’ or some bilateral matter, while the history suggests that the issue existed even before India and Pakistan were founded as independent and separate nations. It is high time for the peace custodians of the world better worry for the speedily approaching Asian Autumn that may turn world into a barren globe.

The irony is that on one hand the innocent Muslim Kashmiris of Jammu & Kashmir were suppressed and tortured while on the other hand the clever Indian Prime Minster Pundit Jawaharlal Nehru was assuring the world at every forum, about extending the plebiscite right to the Muslims of the Valley. That’s the most tragic episode of this unresolved issue. What Pandit Nehru assured to the outer world and what he executed and accomplished internally is a different story being kept pending for some other time. That’s how the new tale about the miseries of the inopportune Kashmiris started. Ever since the freedom of India Pakistan, the number of the Indian troops is increasing in the Kashmir Valley and so is the severity of the atrocities committed by the brutal Indian Army.

After the fallout

BY SOHAIL PARWAZ

We know our Novak but who is the Scooter Libby here?

Do we remember somewhere deep in our minds that famous Plamegate scandal of Whitehouse?

A story of dirty selfish politics at its worst and where the identity of an undercover CIA agent Valerie Plame, ex Ambassador Wilson’s spouse, to undermine latter’s position against the WMD case, was disclosed!

Why? It was merely because Wilson, an ex-ambassador to Niger, was sent to Niger by the CIA on the reference of his wife Valerie to examine if there was any connection between Saddam & Niger on the nuclear issue.

Wilson couldn’t find any but was shocked when the Bush Administration made a case of attacking Iraq on the basis of WMD; his remonstration appeared in the form of an op-ed in July 2003 in the New York Times and that was the moment the Oval Office decided to castigate the ‘culprit’.

Richard Armitage and David Corn used the White House Chief of Staff; poor Scooter Libby was picked to release information about Valerie Plame Wilson to columnist Robert Novak in order to undermine Wilson’s arguments; this was politics at its worst. His column appeared a week later.

Other officials from the State Department were of the view that the leakage of the information was political payback for Wilson’s article. Judith Miller, yet another NYT incumbent who became enmeshed in controversy after her coverage of Iraq’s (WMD) program both before and after the 2003 invasion was somehow later implicated in the Plamegate, in which the status of Valerie Plame as a member of the (CIA) became widely known. When asked to name her sources, Miller cited reporter’s privilege!

She bluntly refused to reveal her sources in the leak and preferred to spend 85 days in jail protecting her source – Scooter Libby – never forget for a moment that we are also in search for ours. Miller later was forced to resign from her job at the New York Times in November 2005. Scooter Libby the source was convicted of obstruction of justice and false swearing to federal investigators in the Plame investigation thus sentenced to 30 months in federal prison and fined $250,000, nevertheless, was pardoned by President George W. Bush.

A decade later, the scene changes, locations and the governments are dissimilar and so are the characters, however, the state of affairs are surprisingly matching. One fine morning a story appeared in a venerated daily which was founded by none other than father of the nation Quaid e Azam about seventy-five years back at Delhi, years before the partition.

The columnist has a solid standing among the journalistic circles and the readers. My friend Cyril Almeida is well-known for contributing priceless write-ups. However, a week back he contributed an article that suddenly created hullabaloo in the political, military circles and the public. His write up “Act against militants or face international isolation, civilians tell military” was less of an op-ed and more of a news piece; Cyril, never the type to write an ordinary piece. It appeared as if out of sheer elation to share this breaking news he forgot to care for the style.

The question is not that what was said, rather the issue is how come it reached Cyril and if at all it reached to our Robert Novak then who was the Scooter Libby in this case? Was the information placed on the editor’s desk through Islamabad resident editor after routine editorial checks or was it an unusual ‘direct throw’? Cyril isn’t at fault. It is his profession to get the sizzling stories by any means. The puzzle is the source’s anonymity that certainly is not General Rizwan Akhtar as the damage is done to the army’s repute and self inflicting injuries are never popular with Khakis. So, should we say someone from governmental circles? That can’t be ruled out as majority of the political parties have shown unanimity over army bashing in the recent past.

Although, Cyril has a history of scripting  controversial thrilling pieces and making off the record conversations public, however, I shall never blame him for so, as I said earlier that this is his vocation where some are responsible enough while others care damn about the ethics. As a matter of fact the onus lies upon those who expect that what they share will remain off the record. Of course, some, on purpose share sensitive information and deliberately ‘warn’ the stooges to ensure that what they shared is shared further.

I remember that Cyril once earlier made the GHQ authorities uncomfortable by extensively quoting from a background briefing given by the then COAS General Kayani and as usual summing up his story with a footnote that, “All comments were made strictly on the condition of anonymity being maintained.”  However, Mr. Almeida, both as a journalist and as a citizen of the country, failed to reciprocate the responsibility and trust by leaking that information which was related to war and diplomacy and by no way as urgent as exposing corruption and underhand deals, thus shattered the confidence of his hosts.

Our friend’s write-ups never confirm his inclination towards left but that doesn’t mean that his soft corner for the right is across the board for odds and ends. Many of his articles written in the past spelled his fondness for the current ruling party while for the PPP he would always be critical.

In his article of 18 February 2011, ‘The Myopia Continues’, Cyril Almeida, conveys the following message – only he knows who asked him to do so – to President Zardari, “When the interior minister, the ex-foreign minister and the all-powerful spy chief met to decide the fate of Raymond Davis, two of those gents were of the opinion that Davis doesn’t enjoy ‘full immunity’.

“One of those two has now been fired by Zardari. The other, well, if Zardari tried to fire him, the president might find himself out of a job first”. In yet another piece in Dawn on 16 Sep 2011, ‘Inside Zardari’s mind, the update’, Cyril writes, “Only two things can stop him: Sharif, if he wised up and somehow stops the election from being stolen; the army, if it decides the costs of non-intervention are higher than the benefits of the status quo.”

My only question to the concerned quarters is that such controversies always offer fodder to otherwise defeated Indian media onslaught against Pakistan, hence in that light, did our Scooter Libby think at least once before feeding this reckless story to our ambitious Robert Novak about the disastrous fallout? Or he is so confident that our Richard Armitage and David Corn are going to save his skin and will keep him as the unnamed source?

Who are Sabotaging Pak-Afghan Relations?

By Sajjad Shaukat

Waging a prolonged war in Afghanistan, the US and other NATO countries have realized that after the withdrawal of foreign troops, Afghanistan would be thrown in an era of uncertainly and civil war. They realize the fact that there is a co-relationship of terrorism or stability in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Therefore, US-led developed nations which also spent billions of dollars for the development of Afghanistan have repeatedly agreed that without Islamabad’s help, stability cannot be achieved there.

But, it is regrettable that the US-led countries like Israel and especially India are sabotaging Pak-Afghan relations. In this regard, America which prefers India over Pakistan has been acting upon ambivalent policy. However, we need to analyze various aspects and developments in this respect.

According to an online report, Afghan security officials and Governor of Helmand have stated that investigations are in progress against the officialas of the Afghan Nation Security Forces (ANSF), who left their weapons and vehicles deliberately for Tehreek-e-Taliban Afghanistan (TTA) in Badakhshan/Helmand province. From the report, it can be inferred that the Afghan intelligence agency, National Directorate of Security (NDS), duly supported by Indian secret agency RAW is involved in high level corruption in Afghanistan. They are playing with the sensitivities of US authorities and extracting billions of dollars in the name of fight against TTA and under the table, they are handing over trained men and material to the TTA. The success of TTA in different provinces is not because of the enormous strangeness of TTA, but because of the tacit support and connivance of NDS/ RAW with TTA.

From time to time, controversy arises between Afghanistan and Pakistan when Afghan officials refused to recognize the Durand Line which is the 2640 kilometer long and porous border, situated between both the countries.

The issue again came to the limelight on June 12, 2016 when Afghan security forces started unprovoked firing at Torkham border crossing, resulting in injuries to more than 16 Pakistani citizens, including the martyrdom of some Pakistani security personnel. The aim was to stop Pakistan from construction of  a gate.  

In this regard, gate at Torkhum border has been constructed on Pakistani soil and Islamabad did not violate Durand Line, but Afghan forces made aggression three times when Pakistan started construction of gate at Torkhum. Durand Line has not been drawn by Pakistan, but it was declared border line by British representative Sir Durand and Afghan Ameer Ghazi Amanullah Khan in 1919. People of Pakistan’s province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA (Tribal Areas) opted to join Pakistan in 1947. So, it is a declared border line and Afghan government has no right to object on any construction along with the Durand line.

It is notable that in the recent past, cordial relations were established between Pakistan and Afghanistan when Afghan President Ashraf Ghani had realized that Afghanistan and Pakistan were facing similar challenges of terrorism and would combat this threat collectively. But, it is misfortune that on direction of India and like the former regime of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan’s present rulers have also started accusing Pakistan of cross-border terrorism. In this connection, after hours of the Taliban captured Kunduz city, on September 28, 2015, during his address to the UNO General Assembly, Afghanistan’s Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah blamed Islamabad for carrying out cross-border attacks and destabilizing Afghanistan.

Differences exist between Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah and President Ashraf Ghani, as the former wants cordial relations with New Delhi at the cost of Afghanistan and the latter prefers Islamabad. In this respect, on December 10, 2016, President Ghani accepted the resignation of Rahmatullah Nabil as director of the Afghan intelligence agency, NDS, after developing differences of the spymaster with him over Ghani’s move to attend the regional conference (Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process Conference) in Islamabad.

The power struggle between Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah has been going on to consolidate their authority over the Afghan affairs in Kabul since the formation of the Afghan Unity Government (AUG). The differences between the two have now risen very high and Abdullah Abdullah has started questioning Ashraf Ghani publically and has declared Ashraf Ghani incapable/unfit to hold the office of Afghan president. Hence, besides Indian factor, all Afghan problems turmoil are attributed to their inner power struggle.

In this context, Afghan government’s instructions to ban Pak-currency in Afghanistan on behest of New Delhi would amount to nothing more than damaging the economic activities, taking place in Afghanistan, particularly in the areas and provinces bordering Pakistan. This decision is causing huge loss to no one else, but the Afghan business community and Afghan people.

In fact, based in Afghanistan, operatives of CIA, Mossad and RAW which are well-penetrated in the terrorist outfits like Islamic State group (Also known as Daesh, ISIS, ISIL), Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and their affiliated Taliban groups are using their terrorists to destabilize Tibetan regions of China, Iranian Sistan-Baluchistan and Pakistan’s Balochistan by arranging the subversive activities. In this respect, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is their special target.  

In this connection, ISIL claimed responsibility for a terror attack on the Police Training College in Quetta-the provincial capital of Pakistan which left at least 60 individuals dead on October 24, this year.  

As regards the terror attack, IG FC Major General Sher Afgun informed the press that the attackers acted on directions from Afghanistan and the initial investigation suggests that the terrorists were affiliated with the outlawed Lashkar-e- Jhangvi Al Almi militant group. He elaborated, “We came to know from the communication intercepts that there were three militants who were getting instructions from Afghanistan.”

Earlier, an affiliated faction of the ISIS and TTP, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan Jamaat-ur-Ahrar (TTP-JA) took responsibility for a deadly suicide bombing in Quetta, which killed at least 74 people on August 8, 2016 in an attack at the government-run Civil Hospital.

However, it is part of ploy that two terrorist groups accepted responsibility for the terror asaults in Quetta to divert the attention from the US-led India and Israel, as like Syrian war, American CIA, Indian RAW and Israeli Mossad are playing double game with Pakistan to obtain the clandestine aims of their countries, particularly by trying to sabotage the CPEC.

As part of the dual strategy, these foreign agencies are in connivance with the Afghan NDS and other terrorist groups. With latest capture of six NDS supported terrorists in Balochistan, the number of NDS backed terrorists arrested and killed by Pakistani Intelligence agencies has crossed over 126. These external secret agencies are particularly supporting the TTP which is hiding in Nuristan and Kunar provinces of Afghanistan. Reportedly, Mullah Fazlullah led TTP is being prepared to carry out a fresh wave of terror activities inside Pakistan, as the latter has become center of the Great Game owing to the ideal location of Balochistan.

It is mentionable that besides other similar attacks in Afghanistan; ISIS claimed responsibility for a joint suicide bombing of July 23, 2016 in Kabul, which targeted the peaceful rally of the Shiite minority of Hazaras who were protesting against the government’s decision of denying their region essential infrastructure through their plans of rerouting a power line. The twin suicide blasts killed more than 80 persons. In these terms, India and Israel which also want that NATO forces should remain entangled in Afghanistan are also using ISIS and TTP militants as part of Indo-Israeli collective interests.

Pakistan considers that peace in Afghanistan is a guarantee of peace in Pakistan, therefore, has been striving for the same in utter sincerity. But, the US and India do not want to see the peace and prosperity in the region. Sadly, Pakistan’s dominant role in Afghanistan’s peace process under the Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) has, deliberately, been disrupted by killing of the Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansur in CIA-operated drone attack in Balochistan, which badly derailed Afghan dialogue process, as Afghan Taliban leaders refused to participate in the US-sponsored talks with the Afghan government. While, in the recent past, with the help of Pakistan, a series of meetings were held in Islamabad and Kabul among the representatives of Pakistan, Afghanistan, China and the US to develop an understanding for the earliest possible resumption of stalled talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban with a view to ending nearly 15 years of bloodshed in Afghanistan.

It seems that a double game is on to pressurize Pakistan to bring Afghan Taliban either for the dialogue or to take action against them. US, India and Israel have built a hostile nexus for the Great Game and are pressurizing Pakistan by limiting its choices.

Hence, trust deficit has deepened between Pakistan and the America. Therefore, on June 10, this year, a high-level delegation of the US visited Islamabad and met Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff Gen. Raheel Sharif and Adviser to the Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz Adviser separately.

During the meeting, expressing his serious concern on the US drone strike in Balochistan as a violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty, Gen. Raheel Sharif highlighted as to how it had impacted the mutual trust and was counterproductive in consolidating the gains of the military Operation Zarb-e-Azb against terrorists. He explained, “All stakeholders need to understand Pakistan’s challenges-inter-tribal linkages and decades-old presence of over three million refugees—blaming Pakistan for instability in Afghanistan is unfortunate—target TTP and its chief Mullah Fazlullah in their bases in Afghanistan—Indian RAW and NDS are fomenting terrorism in Pakistan.”

US ambivalent policy about Islamabad could also be judged from some other development. In this regard, another delegation of US Senators including Senator Lindsey Graham led by Senator John McCain, Chairman of US Senate Arms Services committee visited Islamabad and North Waziristan Agency (NWA) on July 3, 2016. The US Senators visited areas cleared of terrorists during Operation Zarb-e-Azb. American delegation appreciated the Pakistan Army’s accomplishment of cleansing the entire area of NWA right up to the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, after witnessing the terrorists’ hideouts and communication infrastructure dismantled by the Pakistan Army.

Outwardly, American top officials have been appreciating the capabilities of Pakistan’s security agencies against terrorism, but inwardly, they are not pleased in relation to the successes, achieved by the armed forces of Pakistan against the militants, because America is acting upon a dual strategy in relation to Islamabad, also due to the reason that Pakistan in the only nuclear country in the Islamic World, which irritates America and its allies India and Israeli.

While, Pakistan rendered numerous sacrifices for Afghanistan during the last few decades, but ironically Afghanistan is still playing in the hands of their foreign masters especially India. Their efforts to re-engage Baloch and Pashtoon propagating anti-Pak ideology is a distant dream. Online report of Intelligentsia-2 says that Afghanistan should focus to revamp and rebuild their own cities rather than becoming part of the intrigues and controversies of the Hindus.

It is evident from the history that insurgencies do not emerge in a vacuum, neither appear over night. They grow on definite underline root causes. Hence, misguiding and engaging the Baloch and Pakhtoon for ulterior motive may not be a step in a right direction. Perhaps Afghanistan has forgotten that Pakistan is hosting around 3.5 million Afghanis without any foreign assistance, so it cannot be involved in cross boarder interference. If Afghanistan focuses to reunite their own refugee families, it will be a everlasting reward for the refugees and Afghanistan. Islamabad wants prosper and stable Afghanistan. Pakistan hopes that Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) energy transit project would enhance the deteriorating bilateral relation between both the countries. Kabul needs to understand that Indians are adopting the policy of the British East India Company to conquer Afghanistan as an average of their great leaders like Mehmood Ghaznavi, Shahab-Ud-Din Babar and Ahmed Shah Abdali etc. who conquered Hindustan and ruled for centuries. Therefore, it is hoped that Afghanistan and even Baloch must understand the ulterior motive of the external enemies, particularly India and may strengthen bilateral relations and brotherhood rather than becoming tools of non-Muslims.

Nonetheless, Pakistan shares common geographical, historical, religious and cultural bonds with Afghanistan. America and its Western partners have repeatedly recognized that Pak-Afghan stability is inter-related, which is essential for their global and regional interests. They know that without Islamabad’s help, stability cannot be achieved there. But, by following the conflicting interests, the US-led countries are deteriorating Pak-Afghan relations to obtain their covert aims, and are encouraging New Delhi to continue anti-Pakistan moves. Thus, the US-Western countries are destabilizing South Asian security which is equally essential for them.

Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations

Email: sajjad_logic@yahoo.com