By Naveed Ahmad
There are no formal closures or obituaries when a regional organisation,
whether military alliance or political grouping, becomes unviable or
irrelevant. Remember Warsaw Pact, The Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) and
The Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO)! Similarly, the profile and
activities of Non-Aligned Movement and Developing-8 are seasonal, depending on
which country holds the chair. Now the South Asian Association for Regional
Cooperation (SAARC) is the latest in the endless list of obsolete blocs.
At Goa, Delhi invited a different set of
countries for a parallel summit while it hosted BRICS. On his inauguration as
prime minister in 2014, Narendra Modi had totally ignored the members of Bay of
Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation
(BIMSTEC), comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and
Thailand. Inviting SAARC leaders, including those from Pakistan, made his
swearing-in ceremony global news. However, the importance accorded to SAARC was
only selective and the hype temporary, as India didn’t resume the composite
dialogue process with Pakistan. Over the years, the situation has worsened to a
near-war scenario. Last month, India dumped SAARC after engaging with Iran and
Afghanistan through a trilateral framework. Delhi’s frustration at Pakistan and
China over a shared logistical corridor acted as the final nail in its coffin.
Effectiveness of regional organisations
BIMSTEC was formed in 1997. The ‘alliance’,
as it calls itself, aims “to harness shared and accelerated growth through
mutual cooperation in different areas of common interests by mitigating the
onslaught of globalisation and by utilising regional resources and geographical
advantages.” The sector-driven cooperative organisation began with focus on
trade, technology, energy, transport, tourism and fisheries but later expanded
to including agriculture, public health, poverty alleviation,
counter-terrorism, environment, culture, people-to-people contact and climate
change in 2008.
Before moving to the bloc’s geo-economic and
geo-strategic dynamics, it is pertinent to mention its flagship projects. The
under completion Kaladan Multi-modal transit transport project seeks to link
India and Myanmar by connecting Kolkata to Sittwe port. Then there is
India-Myanmar-Thailand highway, which is likely to complete sometime in 2017.
Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal have already started realising the dream of
vehicular cargo transportation. Trial runs of trucks began in 2014 but much
remains to be hammered from infrastructure and bureaucratic perspectives.
But the credit for these projects goes to
bilateral and multilateral negotiations than BIMSTEC itself. Such cooperation
on economic and trade fronts is attributed to the seven-member body to enhance
its profile.
For India and Bangladesh, significance of
BIMSTEC has been fuelled by similarity of views between Narendra Modi and
Hasina Wajid. Housing the alliance’s secretariat, Dhaka has the responsibility
of evolving the bureaucratic foundations for smooth trade and infrastructure
development projects.
For nearly a decade, the Bay of Bengal
Initiative has survived in dormancy for lack of interest from its key members.
For an economic alliance, the BIMSTEC is too varied. The varying economy sizes
and the member countries challenge the notion of fair treatment for all.
The differences in scale of economic
development of Burma and Nepal with other members like India are mammoth and
widening. For India, peace in the north-eastern states is of paramount
significance. The Maoist and other secessionist movements have not been quelled
to satisfaction. Thus, it is set to face similar threats in the northeast,
which it has been funding, to create in Pakistan’s Balochistan region for the
CPEC. Mere security cooperation with Myanmar and Bangladesh won’t be enough to
address the concerns of defiant militants and their local supporters. However,
the militancy in the northeast poses limited challenge to the bloc’s success
than internal jealousy for maximising outcomes.
Member states and their motives
BIMSTEC is a natural alliance but not necessarily
one destined for success. China’s entry into the forum could be a game-changer.
Neither has Beijing been invited nor is it interested. While the BRICS summit
was being held in Goa, the Chinese premier was concluding his visit to
Bangladesh. For Asia’s economic giant, bilateral relations hold the key, and
wherever needed, the ASEAN multilateral forum comes to aid.
For Pakistan, the Central Asia Regional
Economic Cooperation (CAREC) holds the key. It’s nascent and less hyped
compared to SAARC. China and Pakistan are linchpin for the other eight
landlocked Central Asian members of the bloc. Not only does the grouping offer
Central Asia access to the Arabian Sea through Gwadar and Karachi ports, but
also connects her to Eurasia.
With technical assistance from the Asian
Development Bank, 30 road projects will be constructed at a cost of $8 billion
in next five years. The secretariat is already studying the proposal of
including Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Thailand, three BIMSTEC members.
CAREC revives historic trade routes for all
its member states as much as BIMSTEC does for its participants. There won’t be
much sobbing over the prolonged experiment called, SAARC.
Naveed Ahmad is a Pakistani
investigative journalist and academic with extensive reporting experience in
the Middle East and North Africa. He is based in Doha and Istanbul. He tweets
@naveed360
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