PAKISTAN’S NEED FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY

Amjed Jaaved

Our country is in throes of a full-fledged energy crisis. There is a discernible upsurge in enthusiasm for nuclear energy worldwide. Industrial production and household routines are being regularly disrupted by outages and planned power cuts (euphemistically called load shedding). The country’s backbone that is textile mills, steel smelting operations, shoe factories, small businesses and other key components operate on a limited schedule.

It is the poor who have to bear the brunt of power cuts. They do not have uninterrupted power supply units to beat load shedding. Besides, they lose jobs as the result of power-induced layoffs. Ordinary hospitals have no generators. As such, it is difficult for them to take care of the country’s ill.

At present, nuclear power accounts for only about one per cent of the country’s energy consumption. The country has two civilian-use nuclear reactors. Construction on a third one is underway. The country generates only about 450 MW of nuclear electricity. It has plans to increase the current capacity to about 8,800 MW by year 2020!

The technologically- advanced West has paid only lip service to Pakistan’s voracious need for nuclear power. They have extended the benefit of civilian nuclear energy to India, but not to Pakistan. During the former president Bush’s visit to Pakistan in March 2006, Pakistan’s prospective energy requirement was a topic of discussion. The communiqué issues at the end of the Bush trip committed the two countries to inaugurating `an energy working group, which will explore ways to meet Pakistan’s growing energy needs and strengthen its energy security’ and to working together `to develop public and private collaboration on a broad range of energy sources’. Unfortunately, there has been no tangible follow-up to the sanguine communiqué.

Ignoring Pakistan's dire need for energy, the USA has not signed a similar agreement with Pakistan. Stephen Cohen, Brooking Institution's South-Asia expert, echoed Pakistan's principled position on civilian-use of nuclear energy while addressing the United States’ Homeland Security Sub-committee. Key points of Cohen’s address are: (a) The 123 agreement should have been criteria-based instead of one-time India-specific bonanza.

The preferential benefits, envisioned in the deal, should have been extended to other eligible countries. Focusing, in particular on Pakistan, Cohen Called upon Washington to offer a similar deal, akin to European Union's criteria-based membership to the Union, to Pakistan. Cohen suggested that because of Washington's nonchalance to Pakistan's request, Pakistan has been forced to seek nuclear cooperation with China. In his view, Pakistan could be offered civilian nuclear cooperation in exchange for some reasonable nuclear restrictions.

There is worldwide enthusiasm for tapping the source of nuclear civil energy. This enthusiasm is outcome of over two decades of disappointing growth, coupled with economic recession. Industry leaders are forecasting a nuclear renaissance. The `nuclear renaissance' envisions a doubling or tripling of nuclear capacity by 2050. It is predicted that nuclear power would spread to new markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. A host of new fuel-reprocessing techniques and reactors would be developed.

The big push for nuclear power plants is expected in Asia, particularly from China, India, Japan and South Korea. In Europe, Italy is reconsidering nuclear energy. Besides, countries such as Germany and Sweden might delay or abandon phasing out nuclear power to meet climate change goals. Other countries (such as Canada, South Africa, and South Korea) have also planned to expand their programs to include uranium enrichment, plutonium reprocessing, or both.

Over two dozen additional states mostly in developing countries, including Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, have ardent interest in taping nuclear energy to meet their power deficiency. It is predicted that if the demand for nuclear energy continues to rise, the number of states with nuclear reactors could double.

A few more words about Pakistan’s current nuclear-power status. Pakistan has two pressurized-heavy-water reactors. One is the 125MWe Karachi Nuclear Power Plant. The other is Chashma Nuclear Power Plant with 325 MWe. Construction of Chashma-II is in progress with China’s assistance.

The project is expected to be completed in year 2,011. Because of political and feasibility constraints, it is not possible for Pakistan to tap new sources of hydel energy. As such, nuclear energy remains the only avenue to be tapped. The government is willing to design necessary policies and provide funds to implement nuclear-energy projects. The benefits of nuclear energy outweigh its costs. That's the reason the USA and India have signed the 123 agreement to benefit from cooperation in the field of civilian use of nuclear energy.

An energy-deficient Pakistan will be poor, politically unstable and environmentally-unsustainable. Impoverished Pakistanis would be an easy prey to the blandishments of preachers of religious bigotry or xenophobia. It is time the major powers shunned discriminatory policy towards Pakistan.

The World Bank, Asian Development Bank, members of international business community should see Pakistan as a potential investment target. The international financial institutions and the developed countries should extend cooperation in field of civil nuclear energy to speed up industrial activity in Pakistan. Faster economic growth will provide jobs to frustrated youth. As such, the unemployed youth would no longer find the extremist ideologies alluring.