RAW & NDS outsource terrorism: set prices to kill Pakistanis?

By Mirwais Khan|

Discussions with several sources in local police and intelligence in and around Chamman, in Pakistani province of Baluchistan reveal that Indian and Afghan Intelligence agencies (RAW & NDS respectively) operating from the Afghan town of Spin Boldak, may have developed newer ingenuous methods of using terror outfits against Pakistani security forces and civilians.

With more and more arrests, and surrenders in these areas and the debriefing of the arrested handlers in Lahore and other parts of Pakistan a broader picture of Indian and Afghan agencies role in creating terrorism inside Pakistan is getting clearer. This can be called: “Out-Sourcing of Terrorism”

With the recent wave of terror attacks across Pakistan, that killed almost 200 people over the last ten days, the question that stood out is: how do these apparently religiously motivated or sectarian outfits finance their activities? Intelligence and policing sources claim, that the drawing room intellectuals sitting in Islamabad and hobnobbing with diplomats, have no idea of the realities on ground. Terrorism costs money; a single suicide mission can cost up to Rs. 4 million to its planners and takes several weeks of sophisticated planning and coordination. Terrorism does not come cheap. “Its less about religion and sectarianism and more about management & financing like business projects”; one intelligence source argued.

The Afghan graveyard

Munir Akram 

The writer is a former Pakistan ambassador to the UN.

AFGHANS often proudly refer to their country as “the graveyard of empires”. Today, unfortunately, it has become just a graveyard. The latest UN Report on Afghanistan chronicles the large and escalating human toll of its prolonged war. Afghanistan has also emerged as the primary source of regional instability.

The major catalysts for the current chaos in Afghanistan were: the 1979 Soviet intervention; the subsequent rise of religious extremism and terrorism; and the two wars fought by the US in Afghanistan — the first to support religious extremists against the Soviet Union and the second against the spawn of these extremists ie Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban.

After 15 years, the loss of thousands of lives and the expenditure of hundreds of billions of dollars, the US and its allies have been unable to eliminate Al Qaeda or defeat the Taliban. The unending violence unleashed by the ‘war on terror’ has, if anything, intensified the terrorist threat from Afghanistan.

US president Obama wanted to cut US losses and leave Afghanistan. He was prevented by his generals from doing so. They could not admit to being stymied by ragtag religious militants. They blamed Pakistani ‘safe havens’ and duplicity for their failure and pressed Pakistan to fight their fight. This remains the Washington consensus.

The continued presence of the US-Nato forces in Afghanistan serves several unstated goals: to prevent the collapse of the US-installed Kabul regime; to exert pressure on Pakistan and Iran in the context of counter-proliferation and other US regional objectives; to counter the rising influence of Russia and China in Afghanistan and the region.

Most of the TTP and Afghan Taliban have moved to the vast ungoverned areas of Afghanistan.

Pakistan was a willing ally in America’s first Afghan war and a reluctant one in the second. The 2001 US invasion pushed many of the Afghan Taliban (as well as Al Qaeda terrorists) into Pakistan. Pakistan’s unpopular alliance with the US, and its early military operations in South Waziristan, fed extremism and eventually led to the creation of the so-called Pakistani Taliban (TTP). Pakistan’s initial actions in Swat and Fata were mainly against the TTP. But the Zarb-i-Azb operation in North Waziristan enveloped all the militant groups located there, including the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network.

Most of the TTP and Afghan Taliban fighters have now moved to the vast ungoverned areas of Afghanistan. Although the ‘good’ and ‘bad’ Taliban distinction has been derided, there is a clear difference between the Afghan Taliban and the TTP. The Afghan Taliban have a feasible political agenda: to secure or share power in Afghanistan. The TTP espouses the nihilistic aim of overthrowing the Pakistani state. The Afghan Taliban do not attack Pakistan; the TTP does — with the sponsorship of Afghan and Indian intelligence. The TTP is now also allied with the militant Islamic State group whereas the Afghan Taliban are fighting it.

IS has announced the extension of its ‘caliphate’ to the ‘Khorasan province’ (encompassing Afghanistan and parts of Pakistan and Iran). It has found recruits mainly from the ranks of TTP, Al Qaeda, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the East Turkmenistan Islamic Movement (ETIM).

The emergence of IS in Afghanistan and its attacks in Pakistan have alarmed Iran, Russia, China and the Central Asian states. They fear that IS will use Afghanistan as a springboard to spread terrorism across the region.

Iran sees IS, with its extremist Sunni ideology, as a mortal enemy which it is fighting in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere. As the ‘enemy of its enemy’, Iran has reportedly extended support to the Afghan Taliban. (Mullah Mansour was killed in Balochistan after visiting Iran).

Moscow has also established contacts with the Afghan Taliban. Russia recently hosted consultations on Afghanistan with Pakistan and China. It was only after protests from Kabul and New Delhi that they were invited to a subsequent meeting in Moscow. The US was not invited to either consultation. Russia is strongly suspicious of the US relationship with IS. Iran has openly accused the US of ‘creating’ IS.

China is also concerned because ETIM is associated with the TTP and now with IS. Apart from preventing destabilisation of Xinjiang province, China also wants to ensure that the threats emanating from Afghanistan do not disrupt the implementation of President Xi Jinping’s ambitious One-Belt One-Road project, especially the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

India has sought for decades to confront Pakistan with a two-front threat. The 2002 installation of the Northern Alliance-led regime in Kabul revived that possibility. As openly admitted by the Indian national security adviser, Ajit Doval, India is using Afghan territory to destabilise Pakistan by sponsoring TTP terrorism and Baloch insurgents. Despite the visible alliance between the TTP and IS, India will not easily give up its ‘assets’ in Afghanistan nor reverse its strategy. On the contrary, if the cross-border attacks on Pakistan are stopped, India’s former army chief has advocated unleashing unrestrained violence within Pakistan by having “Pakistanis kill Pakistanis”.

Appeasing Narendra Modi’s India will not avert India’s plans for widespread subversion and terrorism in Pakistan. This can be achieved by decisive action against the TTP and the eradication of India’s ‘sleeper cells’ within Pakistan.

The timely ECO summit in Islamabad demonstrated India’s failure to isolate Pakistan. The summit’s declaration illustrated the growing regional consensus that sustainable regional security requires an end to the Afghan chaos and that IS and its allies, like the TTP, must be opposed and eliminated.

The incoming Trump administration is now the wild card in the endeavour to create durable security in the region. Apart from its hostility towards Iran, the new administration has not pronounced its policies on Afghanistan, Pakistan or the region. Pakistan and other concerned states must seek to convince Washington that, one, peace in Afghanistan can be achieved only through a negotiated settlement between Kabul and the Afghan Taliban; two, IS and its associates, including the TTP, are the primary threat to the security and stability of Afghanistan and the region; and, three, India and its Afghan collaborators must be persuaded to terminate their support to these terrorists.

The current Afghan chaos was created by unilateral military interventions. Ending it needs active international cooperation.

The writer is a former Pakistan ambassador to the UN.

Published in Dawn, March 5th, 2017

Importance of the Baloch Cultural Day

By Sajjad Shaukat

Every year on March 2, Baloch Cultural Day is being celebrated with the aim to highlight and promote the diversified and rich Balochi culture. The importance of this very day could be judged from the fact that it is being commemorated not only in various districts of the Balochistan province, but also throughout the country besides in Iran, Afghanistan, Dubai, Muscat, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and India. The Visionary Group of Gwadar, involved in developing, construction and social services in Balochistan, has taken the initiative of highlighting and promoting Balochi culture and language beyond the borders of Pakistan.

Various shows including musical programmes are being organised in various cities and towns of
Balochistan, Sindh and Balochi speaking districts of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

On the occasion, various processions of youth, students and people from all walks of life would be taken out from various parts of the provincial capital of Balochistan with distinctive Balochi dress, turban and embroided dresses.

Celebration of the said event started during 2011. Baloch community in Pakistan and abroad organizes various programmes to highlight different shades of Baloch culture/traditions. Appreciable media coverage of various programmes also gets coverage in local and domestic media.

The strong traditions and cultural values are important to Baloch people and have enabled them to keep their distinctive ancient cultural identity and way of life with little change to this day.

The culture and traditions of the Baloch have historically been passed down from mother to daughter and from father to son. Baloch people have preserved their traditional dress with little change over the centuries. The Baloch men wear long shirts with long sleeves and loose pants. The dress is occasionally accompanied by a pagh (turban) or a hat on their heads.

Last year, various musical, cultural and literary ceremonies were held in Quetta and other parts of Balochistan in connection with the Baloch Culture Day—ceremonies were also organized in other countries where Balochs are residing, including Iran, Afghanistan, Dubai, Muscat, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and India. In Quetta, a huge ceremony to mark Baloch Culture Day was held at Balochistan Arts Council which was attended by hundreds of people, including women and children dressed in typical Balochi dress. Cultural and musical shows were held at Arts Council where youngsters and children exhibited their talent by singing Balochi songs and performing Balochi dance. “This is a big day for us. We are excited and proud of our culture and tradition which teach us love, tolerance and bravery”, said Ibrahim Rakhshani, a 28-year-old young man wearing a Balochi turban and trouser with typical Balochi shoes. Yar Muhammad Badini, a Baloch intellectual and researcher says, Balochi literature is the best way to understand Baloch people and their culture. “Balochi culture and language have its own uniqueness and richness which needs to be promoted in the country,” he stressed, adding, that Baloch people besides in Pakistan were also residing in different other countries particularly in Iran, Afghanistan, Oman, East Africa and Turkmenistan. “Baloch woman dress is also recognized as national woman dress of Oman,” he added. However, he does not seem satisfy with the efforts of government to promote Balochi language and culture in the country. “Balochi language is one of those languages which is struggling hard for its survival and needs immediate focus of government,” he added. Meanwhile, Baloch Culture Day was also celebrated in other towns of Balochistan, including Nushki, Turbat, Gwadar, Mastung, Chagai, Sibi, Naseerabad and Jaffarabad where different musical and cultural shows were organized to mark.

During this vary day, it is also of particular attention that since, the government of the Balochistan province announced general pardon and protection to the Baloch militants as part of reconciliation process, many insurgents and their leaders have surrendered their arms and decided to work for the development of Pakistan and the province, peace has been restored in the province.

But, it is misfortune of Pakistan that foreign based entities have again started terror attacks in the country, especially Balochistan. In this regard, at least 88 people were martyred and 343 were injured on February 16, this year when a suicide bomber attacked the crowded Sufi shrine of Lal Shahbaz Qalandar in Sehwan, Sindh province of Pakistan. 

At least 13 people were killed on February 13, 2016 when a suicide bomber struck outside the Punjab Assembly on the Mall Road in the eastern city of Lahore during a peaceful protest of the chemists and pharmacists against a new law.

The affiliated faction of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan Jamaat-ur-Ahrar (TTP-JA also known as JuA) took responsibility for the deadly suicide bombing in Lahore.

While, terror attack in Lahore coincided with the incident in Quetta-the provincial capital of Pakistan’s Balochistan province, where at least one policeman was killed and five people were injured on February 13, 2017 in an explosion occurred on Sariab road.

At least 65 people were killed when a blast struck at the shrine of the Sufi saint Shah Noorani in Balochistan’s Hub Tehsil on November 12, 2016. Terrorist organization, the Islamic State group (Also known as Daesh, ISIS, ISIL) claimed responsibility for the attack.

Besides other terror attacks of the recent past, earlier, the affiliated group of the TTP, TTP-JA took responsibility for a deadly suicide bombing in Quetta, which killed at least 74 people on August 8, 2016 in a assault at the government-run Civil Hospital.

In this respect, a statement by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said that senior Afghan diplomats were summoned to the General Headquarters (Of army) over the recent spate of terrorist attacks in Pakistan and asked to ensure that immediate action was taken against the Pakistani terrorists living in safe havens in their country.

The army, which took the lead in dealing with Afghanistan over the terrorist sanctuaries there, had  announced closure of the border crossings with Afghanistan citing security reasons.

According to the statement of the DG ISPR Major General Asif Ghafoor, on February 17, 2017, Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa appealed to the nation to stay calm by saying, “our security forces shall not allow hostile powers to succeed…each drop of nation’s blood shall be revenged, and revenged immediately…no more restraint for anyone.”

Gen. Javed Bajwa had called Gen John Nicholson, commander of the US’s Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan through telephone to protest continued acts of terrorism in Pakistan perpetrated from Afghanistan, saying that they were testing Pakistan’s policy of cross-border restraint.

Gen. Bajwa told Gen. Nicholson that recent incidents of terrorism in Pakistan had been claimed by terrorist organisations whose leadership is hiding in Afghanistan, and asked him to play his role in “disconnecting this planning, direction, coordination and financial support”.

In a terse message, during the conversation with Nicholson, Gen. Bajwa also informed him of the list of 76 “most wanted” terrorists handed over to Afghan authorities earlier—operating from Afghan territory or hand them over to Pakistan for trying them over their involvement in terrorism.

As regards the terror assault on the Police Training College in Quetta, IG FC Major General Sher Afgun had informed the press that the attackers acted on directions from Afghanistan and the initial investigation suggested that the terrorists were affiliated with the outlawed Lashkar-e- Jhangvi Al Almi militant group. He elaborated, “We came to know from the communication intercepts that there were three militants who were getting instructions from Afghanistan.”

Notably, as part of the dual strategy, CIA, RAW and Mossad are in connivance with the Afghan intelligence agency, National Directorate of Security (NDS) and other terrorist groups. With latest capture of six NDS supported terrorists in Balochistan, the number of NDS backed terrorists arrested and killed by Pakistani intelligence agencies has crossed over 126. These external secret agencies are particularly supporting the TTP which is hiding in Nuristan and Kunar provinces of Afghanistan. Reportedly, Mullah Fazlullah led TTP was being prepared to carry out a fresh wave of terror activities inside Pakistan, as the latter has become center of the Great Game owing to the ideal location of Balochistan.

It is of particular attention that arrest of the Indian spy Kulbushan Yadav in Balochistan has exposed Indian undeclared war against Pakistan. While addressing a joint press conference with the then Federal Minister for Information Pervaiz Rasheeda and former Director General of ISPR Lt. Gen. Asim Saleem Bajwa said on March 29, 2016, “Kulbushan Yadav’s arrest is a rare case that does not happen very often.” He disclosed that Yadav was an active officer of the Indian Navy prior to his joining RAW. He also served as a scrap dealer and had a jewelry business in Chahbahar, Iran, after he joined RAW in 2013.

A video was also shown during the press conference in which Yadav confessed that he spied for India. Yadav admitted that he was assigned with the task to create unrest in Karachi and Balolchitan by stating, “I supported the individuals who worked to destabilize Pakistan…I promoted the criminal mindset that was there in Balochistan.” Another task assigned to him was to target the Gwadar Port. Yadav also confessed—funding Baloch separatists along with other terrorists. During investigation, RAW agent Yadav admitted that during his stay, he contacted various Baloch separatist leaders and insurgents, including Dr Allah Nazar Baloch, to execute the task to damage the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s security agencies uncovered another ring of Indian spies in the country, working as under covert agents, found involved in subversive activities to destabilize Pakistan. In this connection, on November 2, last year, Islamabad disclosed that five Indian diplomats who were serving at the Indian High Commission in Islamabad found to be part of the RAW spy network and were involved in subversive activities by facilitating and funding terrorism. They were declared as persona non grata and expelled from the country. 

Undoubtedly, almost all the terrorists or terrorist groups and insurgency in Pakistan, especially Balochistan have their connection in Afghanistan. The porous border between Pakistan and Afghanistan is frequently used by human and drug traffickers, criminals and terrorists. Their easy access through unguarded porous border provides opportunity to miscreants to cause havoc inside Pakistan and Afghanistan. For effective counter terrorism measures strong border, control management is vital at Pak-Afghan border. But, Afghan rulers are using delaying tactics in this respect.

Taking cognizance of the anti-Pakistan intruders, Pakistan’s army had decided to build a fence along the border, and to control the border crossings. The strategic project of 1,100-kilometre-long trench with the cost of Rs14 billion which was initiated along Pak-Afghan border in Balochistan by Frontier Corps in 2013 has been completed last year. In the next phase, the project will be extended to the entire long border with Afghanistan which had opposed this plan.

While, from time to time, controversy arises between Afghanistan and Pakistan when Afghan officials refused to recognize the Durand Line which is the 2640 kilometer long and porous border, situated between both the countries.

During his visit to Quetta, the former Army Chief Gen. Raheel Sharif on April 15, 15 warned foreign forces and spy agencies against destabilizing Pakistan by supporting insurgents in Balochistan. Gen. Raheel elaborated, “Army will continue supporting the Balochistan government till terrorism is wiped out…those found involved in funding and facilitating terrorists will be dealt with iron hands.”

Now, the Balolch people know about a foreign conspiracy against Balochistan. A majority of the Baloch persons have understood that Balochistan’s mineral resources and geo-strategic location with deep Gwadar seaport, connecting rest of the world with Central Asia have further annoyed the US and India because China has already invested billions of dollars to develop this seaport. It is due to multiple strategic designs that the US which signed a nuclear deal with India in 2008 seeks to dismember both Pakistan and Iran.

They are well aware of the fact that with the tactical support of American CIA and Israeli Mossad, Indian RAW has continuously been assisting the Baloch separatist groups and Baloch Sub Nationalists to conduct subversive acts—and using terrorist elements in Balochistan to threat Chinese interest in the development of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. And, Afghanistan has become a hub from where external secret agencies have been funding and arranging subversive activities in other parts of Pakistan—particulrly in Balochistan through their affiliated militant groups at the cost of Pakistan, China and Iran. In the past few years, they abducted and killed many Chinese and Iranian nationals in Pakistan.

It is mentionable that as a result of the general elections 2013, the government led by the nationalist leader Chief Minister Balochistan Dr. Abdul Malik Baloch was established in Balochistan, while on December 7, 2013; local bodies elections were largely held in a peaceful manner in the province. These elections proved that majority of the Baloch are loyal to the federation, and have rejected the case of separatists, being projected by foreign forces which are destabilizing Pakistan by supporting anti-state elements in Balochistan.

Notably, in the recent years, Pak Army has made strenuous efforts to develop the infrastructure in Balochistan by providing the people employment opportunities to bring the Balochis in the mainstream of the country. For the purpose, army has not only established schools and colleges in Balochistan, but also set up technical and industrial institutes in the province, besides giving military training to the youth.

Various development projects and progressive works, undertaken by Army in Balochistan are Military College SUI Balochistan, Balochistan Public School at SUI, Quetta Institute of Medical Sciences, Gwadar Institute of Technology, Chamalang Beneficiary Education Program, Balochistan Institute of Technical Education, Army Institute of Mineralogy, Assistance to Ministry of Education Balochistan, Baloch Youth Enrollment in Pakistan Army, Dera Bugti Development Projects, Development Projects Kohlu and Nasirabad Division, and Pakistan Army Assistance in Development of Road Networks including Assistance to Ministry of Education Balochistan, Provision of Free Gas & Water, Construction of 50 Bed Hospital at SUI, Chamalang, Musa Khel & Dukki Coal Mines, KASSA Hill Marble Project, Dates Farming at Panjgur, Garrison & Musa Sports Complex, Free Medical Camps, Earthquake 2008 and Pak Army Relief & Rehabilitation Efforts, Flood 2010 and Pak Army Relief & Rehabilitation Efforts, and many other similar projects and provision of services.

Nevertheless, army’s positive steps will increase income of the Baloch youth and reduce their dependence on sardars who are working on the agenda of some foreign powers. Now patriot Balochis have come to know that Pak Army is neither mercenary nor occupying force; while external-backed insurgency has hampered the growth and development of the province. They also know that the province lacked engineers and skilled workers. In this respect, measures of Pak Army have been ensuring local enterprise, local manpower and local skill among the Baloshis.

In 2011, I had visited Balochistan along with other journalists. I saw a number of institutes, set up by army, and these were providing especially technical training to thousands of Balochis. I had also a trip to far-flung areas of the province and witnessed various mega projects and mineral sites. I was greatly surprised that no military operation is going on in Balochistan as propagated by the foreign elements. People told me that some subversive events are taking place by the minority separatist elements so as to create instability in the province.

No doubt, army’s progressive role through numerous schemes and projects for the development of Balochistan will change the fortune of the Baloch people very soon, which is likely to castigate the foreign conspiracy against the province.

It is worth-mentioning that Balochistan had been hit in the past by some phenomenally devastating calamities like floods of 1950, 1973, 1976, 1977, 1992, 2000, 2010, 2011 and 2012, drought of 2000 and cyclone of 2007. The real saviors of people of Balochistan were Armed Forces and FC which quickly responded to the call of duty by extending helping hand to fellow countrymen, conducted exceptionally dangerous rescue missions and provided relief to the victims. Similarly, on September 24, 2013, Awaran district of Balochistan was hit by an earthquake. Pakistan Army and FC promptly acted as asked for by the government. Although FC personnel located in the area were equally struck by the earthquake, yet they were the first ones to respond to the situation. And the Army units hastily moved from Khuzdar and Karachi.

Nonetheless, the every Pakistani must celebrate the Baloch Culture Day with full zeal by giving importance to the Balochi traditions.  The occasion must be   utililzed by highlighting positive developments taking place in Balochistan as a result of harmonious relationship between political and military authorities vis-à-vis Baloch culture traditions.

Water: India Victimizes Pakistan

By Sajjad Shaukat

Pakistan is facing acute shortage of water, as being on lower riparian in connection with the rivers emanating from the Indian-Occupied Kashmir. Since its inception, India has never missed an opportunity to victimize Pakistan by creating deliberate water scarcity with the aim to damage the latter agriculturally.

Historically, India has been trying to establish her hegemony in the region by controlling water sources and damaging agricultural economies of her neighbouring states. New Delhi has water disputes with Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh. Indian extremist Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has given the concerned departments to continue construction of dams has ordered diverting water of Chenab River to Beas, which is a serious violation of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960. Therefore Pak-India water issue has accelerated.

Taking cognizance of India’s diplomacy against Pakistan, a seminar on the subject “Hydro Politics around Pakistan: Reassessing: The Efficacy of Indus Water Treaty (IWT)” was organized by the National Defence University (NDU), Islamabad on January 17, 2017. Gen. Rizwan Akhtar (Former DG ISI), the President NDU, including other experts on the subject highlighted the significance of IWT and the need for deliberations on the subject to find out a viable solution of the problem.

Gen Muzammil Hussain (R), (Chairman WAPDA) said that the subject of IWT is very important for the country. He, however, was unhappy to find out that not a single representative had come from Ministry of Foreign Affairs and even from WAPDA to attend this important seminar. Dr Zaigham Habib, while talking on “Hydro Hegemony in South Asia and Implications for Pakistan” regarded India as a Hydro-Hegemon stated, “neighbours view India with suspicion; it is difficult to conduct discussion on common-interest issues with her in good faith. India’s insistence on secrecy about hydrological data contributes to the distrust within the region. Timely and adequate information is never fully given to Pakistan, Bangladesh and others on water data and on National River Linking Projects.”

Mirza Asif Baig, Pakistan’s Commissioner for Indus Waters, dilated on the “Efficacy of The Indus Waters Treaty”. He mostly talked on the technicalities of the treaty and did not show any concern about the violations of treaty already being carried out by India.

Suleman Najib Khan regarded Indus Waters Treaty signed at Karachi a seriously flawed treaty, which did not serve Pakistan’s interests. He was very critical about the role and efficacy of Indus Water Commission. He was of the view that all the chairmen’s have failed to guard the interests of Pakistan, they neither have expertise nor the will to contribute positively. He highlighted the urgent need of making reservoirs on River Indus, including Kala Bagh Dam (KBD), to save the country from starvation in the near future. He, however, was opposed to Bhasha dam on purely technical grounds. He informed the audience that Kabul River contributes around 20-25 % to Indus River water, especially in winters. India is pursuing Afghanistan to build multiple dams on Kabul River which would further deprive Pakistan of much needed water. He was of the view that Pakistan should also get into some treaty with Afghanistan regarding continuous flow of River Kabul water. He further stated that propaganda against KBD was deliberately launched to crate conviction in the locals that the natural drainages of Peshawar & Kohat valleys, which will be blocked as a result of back pressure from the KBD reservoir. Similarly, propaganda was also launched that the KBD reservoir will create water logging in Mardan, Charsada, Swabi, Pabbi, and Nowshera, despite all of them being higher than 915 feet from seal level. In Sindh, the propaganda was launched that KBD would restrict water supply to Sindh resulting into vanishing of Mangroves and intrusion of sea water. As a matter of fact, Sindh uses five times more irrigation water than Punjab. Flood irrigation on a 14 km wide strip keeps both the Pirs and Waderas happy and prosperous that’s why they do not want this water to be regulated.

Ahmer Bilal Soofi, Advocate Supreme Court, President Research Society of International Law, Former Federal Minister for Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs and President WWF Pakistan spoke on “IWT and International Law: Options for Pakistan”. The main points of his discourse were as follows:-

The IWT cannot be unilaterally terminated, according to Article 12 (4) of IWT; only a new treaty drafted and mutually ratified by both India and Pakistan can only replace existing treaty.

There is no provision which expressly authorizes India to construct a certain number of dams. Neither is there one which prohibits India from making dams beyond a certain number. Clearly, therefore, the number of dams that India wishes to construct on the Western Rivers is an issue outside the scope of the treaty.

IWC does not possess lawyers to contest its case at international level. He suggested that IWC must have a pool of good and qualified lawyers, specialized in international laws. He even offered to pay the salaries of such lawyers for a year, to start with.

Pakistan is the signatory of Paris Agreement, which demands moving away from fossil fuel based energy generation and shifting from non-renewable to renewable sources of energy ie going for Hydro-electric Power Generation. This agreement can also be utilized for strengthening our case for resolving water disputes with India.

Shams Ul Mulk, former Chairman WAPDA, was of the view that Pakistan’s hydel policies have throughout been formulated by our enemy’s agents. India has succeeded in placing their agent’s at all important places of decision making in this sector. Various military and civilian rulers have also been tricked by these agents in getting decisions which, in the long term, have proved detrimental for the country. About IWT, India has been violating the treaty throughout and keeping Pakistan in the dark about various projects which she has been making on western rivers. He also indicated the need and urgency of building more water reservoirs including Bhasha and Kalabagh Dams. He very strongly recommended the revival WAPDA with all power generation and distribution companies/agencies, working under it.

Nevertheless, more dams/reservoirs on Indus River be made, including KBD, at priority basis. The government must create consensus among all the provinces and thwart any negative propaganda by our enemies in this regard. And the violations of IWT by India be contested through aggressive diplomatic maneuver, legally, internationally. Otherwise, India will continue victimizing Pakistan by creating water shortage.

Lal Masjid Foundation: TTP Connections

By Sajjad Shaukat

In the recent past, new wave of terrorism in Pakistan’s province of Punjab, Balochistan, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa killed several innocent people, while various terrorist outfits such as the Islamic State group (Also known as Daesh, ISIS, ISIL) and the affiliated faction of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan Jamaat-ur-Ahrar (TTP-JA also known as JuA) claimed responsibility for these brutal acts. TTP based in Afghanistan have its connections with ISIL and other terrorist organizations and affiliated terror groups, including Baloch separatist elements and is promoting the anti-Pakistan agenda of the foreign entities to destabilize Pakistan. These terror outfits are misguiding the general masses by misusing the concept of Jihad and provoking them for suicide assaults.

Besides other similar terror attacks, at least 15 innocent men, women and children were killed in and around 80 people were injured on February 13, 2016 when a suicide bomber struck outside the Punjab Assembly on the Mall Road (Charing Cross) in the eastern city of Lahore during a peaceful protest of the chemists and pharmacists against a new law.

The affiliated faction of the TTP, the TTP-JA or JuA took responsibility for the deadly suicide bombing in Lahore.

In this respect, the rebuttal of the Shuhada Foundation of Lal Masjid to the claim of TTP-JuA that Lahore Charing Cross attack was perpetrated to revenge the killing of Abdul Rasheed Ghazi is surprising; however it depicts growing abhorrence for terrorists in our society. Every religious scholar of Pakistan condemned the TTP for this attack by the Shuhada Foundation, which also manages media campaign of Maulana Abdul Aziz, is a major upset for TTP. TTP attributes its genesis of Lal Masjid Operation and it often publishes articles and statements on this issue in its magazines to provoke general public. The outrage of people associated with Lal Masjid against TTP is, therefore, a major defeat of faulty narratives of terrorists in Pakistan.

Maulana Abdul Aziz is a person of dubious character and people under his influence are also not constant in their thinking. In the past, they have been supporting TTP’s terrorism in Pakistan and they allegedly expressed allegiance of Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi and DAISH. We hope they will adhere to their statement that leaders of TTP-JuA are agents of Indian RAW and they are killing innocent Muslims in their anti-Islam activities in Pakistan. Reportedly, the son of late Maulana Abdul Rasheed Ghazi, Haroon Rasheed Ghazi has also condemned TTP’s terrorism and has asked for political settlement of issues in Pakistan. Such statements are positive omens and reflect that the space for violent extremist Jihadi narratives is even shrinking in religious groups.

The nexus of Al-Qaeda, DAISH and TTP has killed 55 thousand innocent Muslims in their terrorist attacks in Pakistan so far in the name of Jihad. Militant leaders like Fazullah, Mohammad Khorasani and Ahsanullah Ahsan with their unholy hearts and evil minds defend their attacks like that of Army Public School of Peshawar and that of Bacha Khan University in which only little children and students were brutally massacred. Pakistan’s military and civil high officials strongly condemned the attack and recent terror attacks by pointing out their connections in Afghanistan.

It is notable that as part of the dual strategy, CIA, RAW and Mossad are in connivance with the Afghan intelligence agency, National Directorate of Security (NDS) and other terrorist groups. With latest capture of six NDS supported terrorists in Balochistan, the number of NDS backed terrorists arrested and killed by Pakistani intelligence agencies has crossed over 126. These external secret agencies are particularly supporting the TTP which is hiding in Nuristan and Kunar provinces of Afghanistan. Reportedly, Mullah Fazlullah led TTP is behind the fresh wave of terror activities inside Pakistan, as the latter has also become center of the Great Game owing to the ideal location of Balochistan. These intelligence agencies, especially Indian RAW is trying to damage the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project.

After the recent terror assaults in Pakistan, a statement by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said that senior Afghan diplomats were summoned to the General Headquarters (Of army) over the recent spate of terrorist attacks in Pakistan and asked to ensure that immediate action was taken against the Pakistani terrorists living in safe havens in their country.

The army, which took the lead in dealing with Afghanistan over the terrorist sanctuaries there, had announced closure of the border crossings with Afghanistan citing security reasons.

According to the statement of the DG ISPR Major General Asif Ghafoor, on February 17, 2017, Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa appealed to the nation to stay calm by saying, “our security forces shall not allow hostile powers to succeed…each drop of nation’s blood shall be revenged, and revenged immediately…no more restraint for anyone.”

Gen. Javed Bajwa had called Gen John Nicholson, commander of the US’s Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan through telephone to protest continued acts of terrorism in Pakistan perpetrated from Afghanistan, saying that they were testing Pakistan’s policy of cross-border restraint.

Gen. Bajwa told Gen. Nicholson that recent incidents of terrorism in Pakistan had been claimed by terrorist organizations whose leadership is hiding in Afghanistan, and asked him to play his role in “disconnecting this planning, direction, coordination and financial support”.

In a terse message, during the conversation with Nicholson, Gen. Bajwa also informed him of the list of 76 “most wanted” terrorists handed over to Afghan authorities earlier—operating from Afghan territory or hand them over to Pakistan for trying them over their involvement in terrorism.

Taking cognizance of the terror assaults, Pakistan Army targeted a training camp of Jamaat-ul-Ahrar and militant hideouts located close to the Pak-Afghan border in areas adjacent to Mohmand and Khyber agencies.

In a similar message to Kabul, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz called Afghan National Security Adviser Hanif Atmar to call for strong action against JuA and terrorist’s sanctuaries in Afghanistan.

The Foreign Office of Pakistan said that Afghanistan had been asked to address concerns about presence of terrorist groups on its soil, which are behind the latest wave of terrorism in the country.

It is notable that Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, while addressing a press conference on February 17, this year claimed that the suspects involved in planning and carrying out the Feb 13 suicide bombing on a protest at Lahore’s Charing Cross belonged to Afghanistan. Sharif also announced the arrest of the facilitator of the attacker, Anwar-ul-Haq who he said belonged to Fata’s Bajaur Agency which neighbours Afghanistan. The suspect’s confessional statement was aired during the briefing. The suspect stated: “I was associated with Jamaat-ul-Ahrar and they trained me”, adding that he has visited Afghanistan around 15 to 20 times.

Nevertheless, TTP related terrorist groups and extremist religious leaders, having connections in Afghanistan are following the agenda of enemies against Islam and Pakistan with the aim to create fear and panic in the society to weaken the whole country. Therefore, all eminent religious scholars and Grand Muftis have already rejected the deviant ideology of terrorists and declared that unjustified killing of innocent people is entirely prohibited in Islam. All brutal acts of terrorists are aimed at discouraging general masses from challenging their existence and their radical religious views. Unity of whole Ulema (Religious scholars) of Pakistan has proved that people of Pakistan will never bow down in front of heinous crimes of terrorists and will win the war against terror.

Shooting wars

MUNIR AKRAM 

LAST week, Steve Bannon, the ‘eminence gris’ in the Trump White House, blithely observed that the US will soon be in a “shooting war” in the Middle East. He may be right. Donald Trump’s declared determination to eliminate ‘Islamic terrorism’ implies intensification of several conflicts.

Syria: Trump announced he will fight the militant Islamic State (IS) group, rather than Bashar al-Assad, in Syria, and may commit US ground troops to this fight. This would have aligned US policy with Russia (and Iran). Trump has adjusted his position, endorsing the creation of ‘safe zones’ in Syria. This will put the US at odds with Russia and Iran and erode the tenuous ‘ceasefire’ they imposed after defeating the rebels in Aleppo. The Syrian war is likely to become further extended and more complex.

Iraq: Even if IS is ousted from Mosul and Raqqa, and mopped up in the Syrian-Iraq desert, it will spread elsewhere. Iraq is likely to witness renewed internal rivalry between Shia, Sunni and Kurdish parties and a contest between Iran and a US-GCC coalition for influence in Iraq.

Iran: A ‘shooting war’ between the US and Iran is a real possibility. US Republicans and the military are hostile to Iran. Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu sees Iran as an ‘existential’ threat. America’s Arab allies oppose Iran’s growing influence and interventions in the region. These constituencies are convinced Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran has allowed it to retain nuclear weapons capability and expand its aggressive regional role. New US sanctions have now been placed on Iran after the latter’s missile test last week. Iran’s reactions will provide grounds to ratchet up sanctions and pressure. A US-Iran confrontation — even if short of a shooting war — would lead to intensification of conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, Afghanistan and elsewhere.

Global conflicts and tensions are set to intensify as Trump begins his presidential journey.

Israel-Palestine: Trump appears to have backed away from unconditional support for Netanyahu’s settlements expansion in occupied West Bank. The US embassy shift has also been put in slow motion. Yet, prospects for a two-state solution are fast eroding; the likelihood is rising that Fatah, even Hamas, may be marginalised and replaced by more extreme groups aligned with IS or Al Qaeda.

There are other areas where shooting wars and crises may erupt or be exacerbated.

Ukraine: Fighting has recently resumed in Ukraine between government forces and the pro-Russian opposition in the east, perhaps to ensure the crisis is not ignored as Trump and Vladimir Putin seek to normalise ties. However, Trump has backed away from lifting anti-Russia sanctions unilaterally. The new US UN ambassador repeated US denunciation of Russia’s takeover of Crimea and role in Ukraine. The reset of US-Russia ties is likely to prove more complicated than Trump presumed.

Eastern Europe: Similarly, Nato, pressed by the Baltic states and Poland, has gone ahead with planned military deployments and exercises along Russia’s borders. Trump has stepped back from dismissing Nato as ‘obsolete’. His defence secretary staunchly supports the alliance. Thus, European concerns will have to be factored into the US-Russia ‘reset’. The main bone of contention may not be either Ukraine or the limited Nato military deployment in Eastern Europe but US plans to instal a strategic ballistic missile defence system in Poland.

North Korea: Trump’s claim he will neutralise North Korea’s nuclear and missile programmes is unlikely to be realised. China cannot be pressured to tighten sanctions against Pyongyang to a point that threatens North Korea’s political collapse. Korean unification would bring US troops to China’s borders. A US military strike on North Korea would destroy prosperous South Korea. A regional crisis is, however, brewing due to planned US deployment of the THAAD ballistic missile defence system in South Korea which China and Russia believe would neutralise the strategic nuclear balance.

South and East China seas: From a neutral stance, the US has moved to challenge China’s claims in the South and East China seas. US ‘Freedom of Navigation’ patrols have expanded and 70 per cent of the US navy is now deployed in the Pacific. The US Pacific commander has said his forces are “ready to fight tonight”. The incoming US secretary of state commented in Senate hearings that China’s access to the disputed South China Sea islands could be ‘blocked’ by the US. This was casually endorsed by the White House spokesman. The Chinese responded that to do so the US should be prepared to go to war with China. The US posture may be moderated after sober reflection.

Taiwan: Trump has called into question US endorsement of the ‘One China’ policy, the foundation of Sino-US relations for over four decades. Some Chinese officials have privately declared “the day Taiwan declares ‘independence’ is the day Chinese troops will land on its beaches”. However, Taiwanese fully understand the danger and Trump’s posture is apparently designed to extract trade and other concessions from China rather than actually discard the policy. Still, a Sino-US crisis is possible over trade, missile defence and the South China Sea.

Pakistan-India: Blissfully, South Asia has not figured prominently in the Washington policy turmoil. The US administration will persist in seeking to co-opt India into its strategy to contain China but is likely to be less accommodative of India’s attempts to ‘hedge’ its bets with China, Iran and Russia. India could face problems on trade and immigration. Pakistan will be pressed for cooperation on Afghanistan and terrorism. The US administration is likely to be more decisive in rewarding cooperation and penalising non-cooperation. Trump’s ego may propel him to attempt a mediatory role between India and Pakistan. However, in the event of a Pak-India crisis, the US will side with India. A Sino-US confrontation could result in a knock-on crisis in Pakistan-US ties.

The strategic environment: Today, arms expenditures are rising; military rhetoric is rampant; global and regional cooperation is eroding. After Trump’s election, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists moved up its ‘Doomsday Clock’ to two and half minutes to midnight. The last Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev observed recently that it “looks as if the world is preparing for war”. He urged world leaders to focus on preventing war, phasing out the arms race and reducing weapons arsenals. Unfortunately, no one seems to be listening.

The writer is a former Pakistan ambassador to the UN.

Published in Dawn February 5th, 2017

Avenging terror

MUNIR AKRAM 

IN a prescient statement to the UN Security Council on Feb 13, Pakistan’s permanent representative, after describing the actions taken to restrain terrorism in Pakistan, asserted: “What Pakistan continues to face today are externally supported terrorists.” As if on cue, successive terrorist attacks occurred in Lahore, Peshawar and Sehwan over the next three days.

Immediately after the atrocity at the shrine of Lal Shahbaz Qalandar in Sehwan, the ISPR spokesman said: “Recent terrorist acts are being executed on directions from hostile powers and from sanctuaries in Afghanistan. We shall defend and respond.” The army chief himself declared: “Each drop of the nation’s blood shall be revenged ... immediately. No more restraint for anyone.”

It is not always easy to avenge terror, or eliminate it, since the terrorists are often unknown or in hiding. This is not so in case of the recent terror strikes in Pakistan. We know the terrorists. The attacks have been claimed by the militant Islamic State group and the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan’s subsidiary, Jamaatul Ahrar. We know where they are based: in sanctuaries in Afghanistan adjacent to Pakistan’s border. We know the ‘hostile powers’ that have sponsored these attacks: the intelligence agencies of Afghanistan and India.

Revenge is serious business. It must be exacted after cold calculation of the options, their effectiveness and probable consequences.

The sponsors of the terror war against Pakistan cannot be allowed impunity.

As a first step, the Torkham border crossing has been closed. This will punish the Afghan regime economically. But it may not punish the terrorists or their sponsors directly, nor meaningfully restrain their cross-border movement.

This will require full implementation of the plan to ‘seal’ the border with selective fencing, check posts and technological means to monitor cross-border infiltration. Adequate funds must be allocated to implement this plan expeditiously.

The speedy repatriation of the millions of Afghan refugees is another component of ‘defensive’ measures. Many terrorists are hiding in plain sight among the refugees. Repatriation has been slowed by UN appeals and by some Pakistani agencies on the refugee ‘gravy train’. Their resistance must be overcome. People or groups associated with militant movements and drugs and criminal mafias and the relatives of hostile Afghan leaders should be expelled forthwith.

GHQ has initiated a more direct response by demanding from the Afghan representatives in Islamabad that they take action against or hand over 76 identified terrorists who have been provided sanctuaries in Afghanistan. The demand made to Kabul was also conveyed to the US commander of the coalition forces in Afghanistan, since they exercise dominant influence over the Afghan regime and especially the Afghan intelligence agency, which is the main local sponsor of the anti-Pakistan terrorists. American whining about the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network should not be entertained until the US obliges its Kabul clients to take action against the TTP and IS terrorists targeting Pakistan.

Sartaj Aziz’s phone call to the Afghan national security adviser to urge cooperation against the ‘common threat’ of terrorism is unlikely to produce any result and may have detracted from the more robust message conveyed by GHQ to the Afghans. Pakistan’s counterterrorism cooperation with Kabul and the coalition to stabilise Afghanistan should be made conditional on their acting against the anti-Pakistan terrorists operating from Afghan territory.

Following the Foreign Office protest after the Lahore Mall atrocity, the Afghan charge d’affaires in Islamabad reportedly argued that the Kabul authorities could not be held accountable since there are large areas of Afghan territory that are outside its control. If this is indeed the case, and the Afghan National Army and the US-led coalition forces cannot act against the TTP and IS ‘safe havens’, Pakistan’s forces should be allowed to cross over and eliminate them. Most of these safe havens are within striking distance of the Pakistan-Afghan border.

If Kabul and the US refuse to act, or to facilitate a Pakistani operation, Pakistan may be left with no option but to take unilateral action against these safe havens and the terrorists hiding there. Other countries, like Iran or Turkey, would not hesitate to resort to such action if targeted by foreign-based terrorists. India is unlikely to use this as a pretext for cross-LoC ‘strikes’, given its vulnerability in held Kashmir.

The sponsors of the terror war against Pakistan — the Afghan and Indian intelligence agencies — cannot be allowed impunity. With the evidence in its hands, Pakistan can move the relevant UN Security Council bodies to have both these agencies declared sponsors of terrorism. At the very least, Pakistan should move the UN to conduct an impartial investigation into the role of these agencies in supporting the IS-linked TTP and its associates, as well as the Baloch insurgents. Pakistan’s agencies should no longer hesitate to reveal their ‘sources’ in establishing the sponsorship of terrorism by the Afghan and Indian agencies.

Nor can India be allowed to attack Pakistan with impunity in the west through Afghanistan. Pakistan should not foreclose the option of extending moral and material support to the ongoing indigenous Kashmiri freedom struggle. This struggle cannot be equated with terrorism; it is a legitimate movement for self-determination and implementation of UN Security Council resolutions. Pakistan’s support to the Kashmiri struggle is now both a political and moral responsibility and a strategic compulsion.

Threats and blandishments from India or its American friends cannot deflect Pakistan from protecting and promoting its own interests, objectives and security. An equitable peace with India — whe­ther in the West or the East — can be negotiated only if Pakistan displays courage and determination.

Everything must be done to avoid US sanctions. But many of the penalties entailed by sanctions have been already imposed against Pakistan, such as the halt in US military assistance and blockage of the so-called Coalition Support Funds. Unless Pakistan changes the equation, the price for restoring American largesse will be acceptance of the Indian-US agenda in South Asia. In the past, when under US sanctions, Pakistan has mobilised nationally to achieve its strategic goals, such as its nuclear and missile capabilities. These capabilities are its ultimate defence against external blackmail and aggression today. Pakistan’s leaders and its people must again rise to face the strategic challenges the nation confronts now.

The writer is a former Pakistan ambassador to the UN.

Published in Dawn February 19th, 2017